What is Rakeem Boyd’s Ceiling in 2019?

Despite only playing one fall in the most dismal season of modern Razorback history, Rakeem Boyd is already on the cusp of entering the conversation when it comes to best all-time Hog running backs.

Though as a sophomore Boyd fell more than 400 yards short of getting into record book for the Top 10 best rushing seasons ever, he flashed a glimpse into his tantalizing potential with four straight games of averaging more than 100 yards a game. In that mid-season stretch, he became the first Hog to run for more than 100 yards against Alabama since Darren McFadden in 2007 and ripped off 109 yards on seven carries against Ole Miss.

At the time, coaches said Rakeem Boyd was battling shoulder issues but the extent of that injury wasn’t known until this week. Boyd was in such pain dealing with a lingering injury that he couldn’t even lift his left arm above his head this time last year. He had torn his rotator cuff and labrum at Texas A&M, his initial college out of his high school, but chose to play through the pain.

Finally, the staff convinced him to get shoulder surgery this past offseason. It feels nearly 100% now, Boyd said. On top of that, he also understands the playbook much better this fall than last year. “I’ve paid attention to detail and really got in the playbook a little bit, and started watching a little film with my linemen,” he said earlier this week.

”I kind of like them to critique me every time I run the ball or make a pass play, or scan the defense. I’ve got a little bit better at it. Last year I just came in and wasn’t ready to focus in. Now I’m just locked in.”

Last fall, Boyd already looked the part of a primetime back, with elite shiftiness, burst and the ability to literally jump over would-be tacklers on the way to the endzone:

What would a fully healthy, “locked in” Boyd be capable of?

Given this is head coach Chad Morris’ second season, too, and the team overall has improved, I think it’s a sure bet Boyd will improve his rushing total numbers assuming he stays healthy. By how much, though?

For an idea of Boyd’s 2019 season statistical ceiling, I did the most scientific (*cough*) thing possible. I studied the first year to second year improvements of previous great Razorback running backs, came up with an average percentage of increase and applied it to Boyd.

Below are the backs, all of whom ran for 1,000+ yards in their second seasons, in my survey:

Felix Jones

Darren McFadden

Alex Collins

Madre Hill

Raleigh Williams III

Knile Davis

Dickey Morton

Jonathan Williams

Ben Cowins

Go here to see my breakdown of first to second year improvements of each of these best Razorback running backs ever on an individual basis.

Before diving into those numbers, though, a few caveats.

First off, almost all of these all-timers were true freshmen in their first years. Boyd, meanwhile, is a transfer who’d already spent a year in the SEC and a year raining down fire on the unfortunate community college mortals who lined up against him.

The closest similarity in Razorback annals is Dickey Morton, who played in an era when true freshmen couldn’t hit the field with the varsity players. So, like Boyd, his first varsity season with the Hogs was his sophomore season.

Dickey Morton (1971-1973)

First season with Razorbacks (1971)

Rushing Yards: 831

Yards Per Carry: 6.5

Rushing TDs: 5

Second season with Razorbacks (1972)

Rushing Yards: 1188

Yards Per Carry: 4.9

Rushing TDs: 6

Yards Increase: 43%

Morton, like many of the other elite running backs, played for well-established coaches deep into their time on the Hill. In Morton’s case, for instance, it was Frank Boyles, In Darren McFadden’s case, it was Houston Nutt.

An exception is Alex Collins, who played as a freshman in Year 1 of the Bret Bielema Era.

Like Boyd, Collins was a lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal campaign. The 2013 Hogs went 3-9 overall and 0-8 in the SEC.

Alex Collins (2013-2015)

First season with Razorbacks (2013)

Rushing Yards: 1026

Yards Per Carry: 5.4

Rushing TDs: 4

Second season with Razorbacks (2014)

Rushing Yards: 1100

Yards Per Carry: 5.4

Rushing TDs: 12

Yards Increase: 7%

Those 3-9 Hogs improved to 7-6 and a Texas Bowl berth the following season. Will these 2019 Hogs, coming off a 2-10 season, make a similar improvement? Ninety eight percent of fans and experts, it seems, believe the 2019 Razorbacks will win either 5 games, or the six games needed to make a bowl. So much hinges on the tussles with low-mid level SEC competition like Ole Miss and Kentucky.

Vegas is similarly torn. “Arkansas’ 2019 projected win total for 2019, which started at 6.0, has been reduced to 5.5,” according to SportsBettingDime. “However, the over is a heavy favorite at -155, compared to +115 for the under. In other words, oddsmakers are giving the Razorbacks roughly a 57.8% chance of going 6-6. If they can sweep the non-conference against Portland State, Colorado State, San Jose State, and Western Kentucky, they would only need two SEC wins to get over the number.”

Boyd’s performance will play a big role in getting that vital sixth win. Since he plays in a more pass-centric offense than most of his Razorback predecessors, and may tote the ball even less than his tailback partner Devwah Whaley, it’s harder to project if he’ll get over 1,000 yards or not.

But let’s crunch the numbers using our special sauce formula anyway.

The average all-time great Hog running back improved his rushing yards by 263% from Year 1 to Year 2. Such an increase in Boyd’s case would shoot him nigh into lunar orbit, on the brink of 2,000 yards. Much as we love the guy, that’s not going to happen.

But if we look at running backs who gained at least 500 yards in Year 1 and were not injured in Year 2, then we find two precedents besides Morton and Collins:

Darren McFadden (2005-2007)

First season with Razorbacks (2005)

Rushing Yards: 1113

Yards Per Carry: 6.3

Rushing TDs: 11

Second season with Razorbacks (2006)

Rushing Yards: 1647

Yards Per Carry: 5.8

Rushing TDs: 14

Yards Increase: 48%

Felix Jones (2005-2007)

First season with Razorbacks (2005)

Rushing Yards: 626

Yards Per Carry: 6.3

Rushing TDs: 3

Second season with Razorbacks (2006)

Rushing Yards: 1168

Yards Per Carry: 7.6

Rushing TDs: 6

Yards Increase: 87%

In all, these four Hogs improved their yard production by an average of 46% through their first two years. For Boyd, who gained 734 yards in 2018, a 46% increase would put him at 1072 yards. Getting into the range would mean more open passing lanes for quarterback Ben Hicks and Nick Starkel, and their talented freshmen receivers, to take advantage of. At that level of production, expect Arkansas to make a bowl game.

OK, “science” has had its say.

Now it’s your turn: