Arkansas vs Texas Advanced Stats Preview: Texas Delenda Est

A firebrand speaker who fought against the spread of Greek culture in Rome, Cato is best known for ending every speech he gave to the Senate with the same phrase: Cartago delenda est ("Carthage must be destroyed!").

It's important to note that while Cato was serving Rome in various political positions, Rome was not at war with Carthage. Rome had broken Carthage's back in the Second Punic War two decades earlier, but Cato hated the Carthaginians so much he wanted them destroyed anyway. He finally got his wish in 149 BC as Rome swooped in and destroyed Carthage in the Third Punic War.

Like Rome and Carthage, Arkansas and Texas are no longer in regular war; that is, they are no longer in the same conference. But the hatred is still there, especially on the Hogs' side. Just like Carthage was a shell of its old self with Rome finally invaded and destroyed it, so Texas is a program coming off a 6-6 season, something that just shouldn't happen. Arkansas fans have had no problem storing up anger like Cato, and the Texas Bowl is the perfect time to strike and claim a signature victory for Bret Bielema.

At first glance
	CFP Ranking	F/+ Ranking	F/+ Offense	F/+ Defense	Record (Conference)	Opponent W-L
Arkansas	NR	20th	23rd	19th	6-6 (2-6 SEC)	94-41 (.696)
Texas	NR	57th	94th	14th	6-6 (5-4 Big XII)	82-62 (.569)

Right off the bat, we see what we figured we would: two good defenses, and Arkansas with a significantly better offense. We also see that not all 6-6 teams are made equal. Arkansas' Power 5 victories are over teams with a record of 21-16, Texas' over teams with a record of 22-38.

For this advanced stats preview, I'm dividing the presentation of the stats up a little bit differently. Much of this was inspired by Bill Connelly's Hogs-Mizzou preview for Rock M Nation, which I was really impressed with. Essentially, all of football is divided into two types of offensive plays: standard downs and passing downs. Passing downs are plays run on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-4+. They are downs in which a team is reasonably expected to pass, so the playcalling frequently changes. All other downs are standard downs. I'm grouping rushing stats with standard down stats, because rushing happens most often on standard downs, and passing stats with passing downs stats, for the same reasons. If you don't like it, feel free to leave a comment critiquing the organization. I want to make the information as easy to analyze as possible.

Also, and this is important: If you have not read the roster breakdown that was published last week, please do! I'll be referencing it frequently and it helps explain a lot of trends found in these numbers.

Arkansas' offense vs. Texas' defense

Arkansas offense overall
	Arkansas offense	Texas defense
S&P+	18th	18th
FEI	26th	17th
F/+	23rd	14th

Remember that S&P+ is Connelly's efficiency-based metric, FEI is Brian Fremeau's drive efficiency-based metric, and F/+ is an average of the two, and represents Football Outsiders' official ranking of college football teams. It can be compared to ESPN's FPI metric that they like to use.

Here, we see what we expect based on watching these two teams. Arkansas has a pretty good offense, especially adjusted for the quality of defenses faced, and Texas has a pretty good defense. Arkansas' ability to consistently move the football will be a determining factor in who wins.

Arkansas rushing
	Arkansas offense	Texas defense
Standard Downs % Runs	71.7% (16th)	-
Standard Downs S&P+	29th	8th
Rushing S&P+	18th	33rd

Arkansas' offense is in "Bielema ball" on standard downs. Heavy formations, lots of motion, and a mix of mostly runs with a few play-action passes. Texas' defense is much better at stopping the pass than the run, for reasons related to Charlie Strong's history with the 3-3-5 defense detailed in the roster breakdown. Arkansas' offense actually isn't as efficient on standard downs as the Hogs would like it to be, due to Brandon Allen's struggles to throw the ball on early downs. We've been over this in great detail, but as a refresher, the three main reasons Arkansas struggles to pass on early downs include 1) Allen's field vision isn't as good when passing from under center, 2) the line struggles to hold up for play-action passes frequently, and 3) Arkansas' receivers frequently struggle to get separation on deeper routes.

On the other hand, Texas' standard downs defensive numbers have been inflated by teams that pass on early downs, since most teams that try to run on the Horns (including lowly Kansas and Iowa State) have had at least some success.

Arkansas passing
	Arkansas offense	Texas defense
Passing Downs % Runs	31.6% (69th)	-
Passing Downs S&P+	9th	7th
Passing S&P+	28th	4th

In passing situations, Arkansas rarely runs the ball, ranking only 69th in run percentage. This is "Chaney ball," the shotgun formations with four receivers in the pattern. It's also been Allen's time to shine, as Arkansas is 19th in third down conversion rate and Allen is one of the better quarterbacks in the country on third down. It's also Texas' defense's time to shine, as the Horns generate a good pass-rush and very rarely give up big plays.

We have an early game key here: stay out of third-and-longs. The percentage of downs that are standard downs is called leverage rate, and it's important for Arkansas' leverage rate to be above about 70 percent. Texas' defense is built to stop explosive offenses like Baylor and TCU by forcing them into low leverage rates and then teeing off. Texas' defense has been susceptible to longer, more consistent drives, ranking just 73rd nationally in "methodical drives," or the percentage of opponents' drives that last at least 10 plays. This is the only metric in the FEI that Texas' defense is outside the top-40 in.

Arkansas offensive intangibles
	Arkansas offense	Texas defense
Starting field position	30.4 (47th)	29.5 (60th)
Punt return efficiency	120th	86th
Kick return efficiency	24th*	96th

Arkansas wants to play field position football, and Texas' special teams will accommodate that. The punt and kick return figures are both skewed, as the Hogs' best kick returner, Korliss Marshall, has been dismissed from the program. Countering that is the improvement in punt returns thanks to a midseason switch to Jared Cornelius as a return man. Texas' kickoff and punt units are below average for net yards, so expect Arkansas' offensive special teams to help things out.

Arkansas rushing breakdown by opponent
	Rush Defense S&P+	Season	vs. Arkansas	Margin	Result
Auburn	18th	153.3	153	-0.20%	Loss
Texas Tech	106th	267.7	438	63.62%	Win
Texas A&M	110th	235.6	234	-0.68%	Loss
Alabama	1st	96.4	89	-7.68%	Loss
Georgia	69th	174.3	126	-27.71%	Loss
Mississippi State	21st	124.3	163	31.13%	Loss
LSU	15th	152.0	95	-37.50%	Win
Ole Miss	4th	138.1	156	12.96%	Win
Missouri	11th	137.1	155	13.06%	Loss
Averages	39th	164.3	178.8	8.80%	3-6

Texas is ranked 33rd, for context. That puts the Longhorns below Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, LSU, Ole Miss, and Missouri among Arkansas' opponents. That said, Georgia (69th) was able to slow Arkansas' run game, although it's worth noting the Hogs largely abandoned it in the second half due to a big deficit after averaging 5.2 yards per carry in the first half.

Also of note is the minimal correlation of rushing yards margin to wins/losses. Arkansas won its worst game (LSU) and lost its second-best (Mississippi State). Obviously, a 200-yard rushing game is nice, but Arkansas can easily win without it.

Texas rushing defense breakdown by opponent
	Rushing S&P+	Season	vs. Texas	Margin	Result
BYU	32nd	184.2	248	34.64%	Loss
UCLA	11th	199.4	217	8.83%	Loss
Kansas	116th	108.5	173	59.45%	Win
Baylor	23rd	232.5	278	19.57%	Loss
Oklahoma	2nd	286.8	103	-64.09%	Loss
Iowa State	46th	126.1	179	41.95%	Win
Kansas State	45th	134	143	6.72%	Loss
Texas Tech	43rd	149.6	156	4.28%	Win
West Virginia	62nd	181.7	200	10.07%	Win
Oklahoma State	85th	128.9	34	-73.62%	Win
TCU	13th	210.2	135	-35.78%	Loss
Averages	43rd	176.5	169.6	-3.91%	5-6

Arkansas is 18th in rushing, putting the Hogs ahead of all of Texas' opponents except Oklahoma, UCLA, and Baylor, all of which beat the Longhorns. Texas allowed eight of its 11 Power 5 opponents exceed their season averages for the season. The good game against Oklahoma State stands out, but OSU was only 85th in Rushing S&P+.

Texas vs. Big XII opponents, ranked by Rushing S&P+
	Ranking	Result
1. Oklahoma	2nd	Loss
2. TCU	13th	Loss
3. Baylor	23rd	Loss
4. Texas Tech*	43rd	Win
5. Kansas State	45th	Loss
6. Iowa State	46th	Win
7. West Virginia	62nd	Win
8. Oklahoma State	85th	Win
9. Kansas	116th	Win
>Arkansas: 18th

This one is a little more telling. Texas is bowl eligible thanks to November wins over West Virginia and Oklahoma State, but the thing those two have in common is that they are poor rushing teams. We've discussed Texas' excellent pass defense, so it comes as no surprise that Texas' signature wins came over teams with poor running games. Texas Tech gets an asterisk because Air Raid teams rely so little on the run game that the numbers are frequently inflated. Even Iowa State, ranked 6th among Texas foes, was a tough out for the Horns (who won 48-45) because the 2-10  Cyclones rushed for 190 yards. The two best games for Texas were, unsurprisingly, Kansas (0 points allowed) and Oklahoma State (7 points allowed).

The ineptitude of the Texas offense, discussed next, means that Texas' defense is on the field a lot. The Horns' D sees nearly 10 more plays per game than Arkansas' does, and has seen the 8th-most third downs per game in the FBS. This causes Texas' defense to wear down; in fact, despite Arkansas' much-maligned wear down issues this season, Texas' defense has actually allowed more points in the fourth quarter. The Horns have given up 114 points (9.2 per game) in the fourth quarter, accounting for 42 percent of all points scored against them.

Texas' offense vs. Arkansas' defense

Texas offense overall
	Texas offense	Arkansas defense
S&P+	66th	20th
FEI	104th	19th
F/+	94th	19th

Arkansas' defense has a huge advantage here, but the Hogs also had an advantage over Missouri and lost anyway. The FEI is especially critical of the Longhorn offense. By all three metrics, Texas has the worst Power 5 offense Arkansas has faced this season. According to F/+ and FEI, Texas' offense is actually the worst FBS offense Arkansas has faced, ranking below even Northern Illinois and UAB, and between NIU and UAB for S&P+.

Texas rushing
	Texas offense	Arkansas defense
Standard Downs % Runs	61.2% (48th)	-
Standard Downs S&P+	67th	11th
Rushing S&P+	51st	7th

Texas' read-option run game is discussed in the roster breakdown, and we see here that Texas' run game, the strength of the team, is very average. Texas is above-average in standard downs rushing rate. Arkansas' strength is stopping the run. The Hog front seven has performed well against the read option this season and has been very, very difficult to run downhill against. Arkansas has also performed well against mobile quarterbacks, forcing quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Bo Wallace, Anthony Jennings, Maty Mauk, Blake Sims, and Kenny Hill to stand in the pocket and not establish a run threat.

Texas passing
	Texas offense	Arkansas defense
Passing Downs % Runs	29.5% (84th)	-
Passing Downs S&P+	92nd	19th
Passing S&P+	86th	21st

Texas utilizes a West Coast-style of passing offense with a bunch of short passes. The Horns do have a very good deep threat in John Harris, who has over 1,000 yards this season. Texas is 4-0 when he has 100 receiving yards and 2-6 when he does not. He's Texas' best offensive weapon, and it will be a tall task to cover him. If Arkansas can play him like the Hogs played Amari Cooper of Alabama, then Texas lacks the playmakers Alabama had to make up for it.

Texas' pass protection is very average, as quarterback Tyrone Swoopes (read more about his game in the roster breakdown) has gone down 24 times in 11 games this year. Most of Texas' offensive woes start up front, where injuries, suspensions, and lack of experience have caused Texas to get dominated in the trenches in many games.

Texas offensive intangibles
	Texas offense	Arkansas defense
Starting field position	28.5 (91st)	27.1 (17th)
Punt return efficiency	73rd	3rd
Kick return efficiency	122nd	109th

Here you see how Arkansas' offense helps out its defense: even when the offense doesn't score, it usually moves the ball a little bit before letting Sam Irwin-Hill (3rd in punting efficiency) pin the other team deep. Arkansas has allowed 45 punt return yards this season, and 36 of them came on one return on backup Toby Baker's only punt of the season. Irwin-Hill has allowed nine yards on 14 return attempts. He's a fair-catch and deep-pinning machine. Arkansas does a poor job of kicking off, but Texas is even worse in kick returns.

Texas rushing breakdown by opponent
	Rush Defense S&P+	Season	vs. Texas	Margin	Result
BYU	38th	126.2	82	-35.02%	Loss
UCLA	54th	157.7	126	-20.10%	Loss
Kansas	60th	217.5	111	-48.97%	Win
Baylor	19th	110.4	190	72.10%	Loss
Oklahoma	20th	109.6	148	35.04%	Loss
Iowa State	124th	241.2	191	-20.81%	Win
Kansas State	27th	129.5	90	-30.50%	Loss
Texas Tech	106th	267.7	241	-9.97%	Win
West Virginia	17th	173.5	227	30.84%	Win
Oklahoma State	41st	168.6	125	-25.86%	Win
TCU	6th	119.8	90	-24.87%	Loss
Averages	46th	165.6	147.4	-11.02%	5-6

For the year, Texas is actually rushing for fewer yards than their opponents allow per game, despite being a run-first offense. Texas Tech's run defense is of course horrible, so the Baylor and West Virginia games are the only two that stand out.

Arkansas rushing defense breakdown by opponent
	Rushing S&P+	Season	vs. Arkansas	Margin	Result
Auburn	12th	264.3	302	14.26%	Loss
Texas Tech	43rd	149.6	101	-32.49%	Win
Texas A&M	20th	135.4	137	1.18%	Loss
Alabama	8th	202.9	65	-67.96%	Loss
Georgia	7th	253.6	207	-18.38%	Loss
Mississippi State	5th	238.5	128	-46.33%	Loss
LSU	27th	209.1	36	-82.78%	Win
Ole Miss	37th	146.5	63	-57.00%	Win
Missouri	48th	161.5	158	-2.17%	Loss
Averages	23rd	195.7	133.0	-32.04%	3-6

As you might have guessed, Arkansas' run defense has been smothering, holding opponents to just 68 percent of their season averages. Not counting Texas Tech (again, Air Raid team), Arkansas has yet to allow more than 17 points to a team it held at least 20 percent below its season average.

Texas vs. Big XII opponents, ranked by Defense S&P+
	Ranking	Result
1. Baylor	11th	Loss
2. TCU	13th	Loss
3. West Virginia	22nd	Win
4. Oklahoma	24th	Loss
5. Kansas State	38th	Loss
6. Oklahoma State	61st	Win
7. Kansas	74th	Win
8. Texas Tech	106th	Win
9. Iowa State	119th	Win
>Arkansas: 20th

Texas has struggled with good defenses, beating only West Virginia in five games against top-60 defenses. The passing game has suffered especially in those efforts: Swoopes threw for 300 yards against Oklahoma because the Horns were trailing big the whole way (similar to Allen vs. Georgia), but against the other four top-60 defenses - including the West Virginia win - he was 60 of 122 (49.2 percent) for 574 yards with two touchdowns and seven interceptions. Can Texas win if Swoopes plays that poorly? Unlikely.

Arkansas vs. SEC opponents, ranked by Rushing S&P+
	Ranking	Result
1. Mississippi State	5th	Loss
2. Georgia	7th	Loss
3. Alabama	8th	Loss
4. Auburn	12th	Loss
5. Texas A&M	20th	Loss
6. LSU	27th	Win
7. Ole Miss	37th	Win
8. Missouri	48th	Loss
>Texas: 51st

Texas boasts the weakest rushing attack Arkansas has faced, compared to SEC foes. Of course, Arkansas lost to Missouri, who is only slightly better, although the Tigers were completely unable to run the ball for three quarters.

Arkansas vs. SEC opponents, ranked by Passing S&P+
	Ranking	Result
1. Auburn	2nd	Loss
2. Alabama	3rd	Loss
3. Mississippi State	8th	Loss
4. Ole Miss	9th	Win
5. Texas A&M	20th	Loss
6. Georgia	24th	Loss
7. LSU	49th	Win
8. Missouri	66th	Loss
>Texas: 86th

Arkansas has faced some fantastic passing games, and Texas is the worst by a large margin. Again, danged Mizzou stands out as a loss. Arkansas knocked off Ole Miss and nearly beat Mississippi State by forcing error-prone quarterbacks Wallace and Prescott into turnovers (six combined: four picks, two fumbles). Swoopes has thrown 10 interceptions and lost a couple of fumbles, so the opportunities will be there.

Keys to the game

1. Win standard downs. This is the single biggest key to the game. Winning on standard downs encapsulates a number of things: for the offense, the Hogs must consistently run the football, complete passes if they choose to throw off play-action, and avoid third downs. Defensively, it's keeping Texas from doing those same things. Arkansas doesn't need an explosive offense to win; in a low scoring game against a defense better suited to not give up big plays than to prevent long drives, the Hogs need only grind out a few rushing yards here and there. The Key Stat of the Week is leverage rate, which is discussed above. All other things being equal, the winner of leverage rate has a major advantage. Specific stats: standard downs S&P (including both success rate and isoYPP), rushing success rate, leverage rate
2. Win field position. Field position will largely be dictated by special teams, where Arkansas appears to have an advantage. The Hogs need better net punting and net kickoffs than Texas. It's also important to advance the ball at least a little bit on every offensive possession. Texas is 112th nationally in adjusted first-down drives, meaning the percentage of drives that get at least one first down, adjusted for strength of schedule. Basically what that means is that Texas goes three-and-out a lot, especially against good defenses. If you take an exchange where Arkansas gains 15 yards and then punts, and Texas gains five yards on a three-and-out, then if net punting is equal, Arkansas has gained 10 yards of field position. Keeping the pressure on a backed-up Texas defense that frequently wears down will generate a payoff for the Hog offense. Specific stats: average starting field position, net punting, net kickoffs, first-down drives
3. Win turnovers. Because Arkansas has a better offense (and both defenses are roughly equal), the Hogs only need to breakeven on turnovers and points off turnovers to have a great chance. Texas needs to make things happen. Arkansas can probably go with a more conservative gameplan in which the Hogs are more focused on not turning it over than on forcing turnovers. Losing turnovers affects field position as well. Specific stats: turnovers, points off turnovers