If you think the Razorbacks are in for a tough game against the LSU Tigers tomorrow night in Baton Rouge, then you're right. Or least Ken Pomeroy says you're right. Pomeroy, a noted basketball analyst who writes for Basketball Prospectus, predicts the Hogs to win by a score of 64-63.
On his website, Pomeroy has projections for all 345 Division I teams (sorry Centenary Gents fans - Ken says you're in for a looong, looong season). According to his individual game predictions, the Hogs will finish 9-7 in the SEC, which, assuming they win their highly anticipated February showdown against Florida A&M, would give the team a not-too-shabby regular-season record of 20-10.
But despite his individual game predictions, Pomeroy is projecting an 8-8 conference record for the Razorbacks. The reason for the discrepancy? A footnote on the page says, "Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions." It's been a while since I had a math class but I suppose that make some sense.
Lest you doubt Pomeroy's prognostications, let us remind you that his detailed statistical analysis led him to correctly predict that Peter Tork would be the first Monkee to leave that hit-making quartet. OK - we don't know for certain if that's actually the case, but, in any event, we highly recommend checking his site out. Interesting stuff, for sure.
* Hat tip to Whit E. Knight for pointing me to Pomeroy's projections.