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Ole Miss hardly needs an introduction.
The Hogs will face the Rebels for the 6th, 7th, and possibly 8th times this year during this weekend’s Fayetteville Super Regional. The Rebels are 3-2 in the first five meetings, but these are the ones that matter.
Ole Miss Scouting Report
Strengths: Baserunning, starting pitching
Weakness: Bullpen
Fayetteville Super Regional, Offense
| Stat | Arkansas | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Stat | Arkansas | Ole Miss |
| BA | 0.299 | 0.284 |
| OB | 0.397 | 0.393 |
| SLG | 0.490 | 0.434 |
| HR | 81 | 68 |
| BB% | 12.7% | 13.4% |
| K% | 22.2% | 18.9% |
The Hogs definitely have the better offense. Ole Miss does an excellent job of drawing walks and hit really well in the Oxford Regional, pouring on the runs in a 19-4 clinching win over Jacksonville State.
Fayetteville Super Regional, Defense
| Stat | Arkansas | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Stat | Arkansas | Ole Miss |
| BA | 0.224 | 0.255 |
| OB | 0.314 | 0.331 |
| SLG | 0.335 | 0.389 |
| HR | 46 | 53 |
| BB% | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| K% | 25.8% | 20.2% |
The Rebels boast a stronger pitching staff than anyone in the Regional, although the (post-injury) TCU team we saw in the Regional is probably close. They don’t walk many batters, but they can be tagged for extra base hits.
I don’t really see anything in the numbers that definitively shows why Ole Miss has won most series against the Hogs over the last couple of years. Arkansas’ pitching rotation is heavy on right-handers, while Ole Miss’ batting order is heavy on lefties — an arrangement that conventional baseball wisdom believes benefits Ole Miss. That could have something to do with it. Or it could just be random. Ole Miss is a good team, and sometimes great teams lose to good teams. Win this series and no one will care.
Ole Miss Pitching
| Player | POS | THROWS | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | POS | THROWS | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
| Will Ethridge | SP | R | 7-6 | 2.91 | 1.15 |
| Doug Nikhazy | SP | L | 8-3 | 2.98 | 1.18 |
| Gunnar Hoglund | SP | R | 3-2 | 4.64 | 1.29 |
| Parker Caracci | CP | R | 3-3 | 4.99 | 1.24 |
| Zack Phillips | RP | L | 4-3 | 5.19 | 1.47 |
| Austin Miller | RP | R | 5-3 | 2.92 | 1.15 |
| Houston Roth | RP | R | 1-1 | 4.06 | 1.67 |
| Tyler Myers | RP | R | 2-0 | 4.50 | 1.25 |
| Max Cioffi | RP | R | 2-2 | 4.82 | 1.43 |
| Connor Green | RP | R | 3-2 | 4.81 | 1.58 |
The Rebels lack a dominant ace like Isaiah Campbell but make up for it with two high-quality starters. Will Ethridge (7-6, 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) is the likely Game 1 starter, but Doug Nikhazy (8-3, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) is nearly as good. The Rebel bullpen is mostly right-handers and has been shaky at times this season.
Ole Miss Batting
| Player | POS | BATS | BA | OB | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | POS | BATS | BA | OB | SLG | OPS |
| Ryan Olenek | CF | R | 0.342 | 0.416 | 0.428 | 0.844 |
| Grae Kessinger | SS | R | 0.332 | 0.427 | 0.458 | 0.885 |
| Cole Zabowski | 1B | L | 0.316 | 0.371 | 0.512 | 0.883 |
| Thomas Dillard | LF | S | 0.312 | 0.451 | 0.541 | 0.992 |
| Anthony Servideo | RF | L | 0.290 | 0.432 | 0.395 | 0.827 |
| Tyler Keenan | 3B | L | 0.279 | 0.421 | 0.492 | 0.913 |
| Cooper Johnson | C | L | 0.265 | 0.369 | 0.434 | 0.803 |
| Kevin Graham | DH | L | 0.259 | 0.331 | 0.531 | 0.862 |
| Jacob Adams | 2B | L | 0.222 | 0.369 | 0.259 | 0.628 |
Ole Miss, like Arkansas, boasts a very balanced hitting lineup that doesn’t have any dominant hitters but also has very few weak points. The bottom of the order doesn’t hit as well as the bottom of the Hogs’ order, but it makes up for this by getting on base. Four Rebels have double-digit home runs, led by Tyler Keenan with 14.
Base running is significant to Ole Miss’ offense. The Rebels are a staggering 92 of 113 when stealing bases this year. Arkansas, also an excellent base-stealing team, is 77 of 92. Base running and drawing walks allows Ole Miss to generate offense even if they aren’t hitting well. Hog pitchers will have to have good control this weekend.