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Trying to Make Sense of Arkansas’ SEC Tournament Scenarios

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Where could the Hogs land?

NCAA Basketball: Auburn at Arkansas Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Simply put, the SEC standings are a mess. No one is locked into any one spot going into the final day of the regular season. For the Hogs, there’s plenty of volatility heading into Saturday. Here are the current standings, plus their final game.

  1. Auburn (12-5) vs. South Carolina
  2. Tennessee (12-5) vs. Georgia
  3. Florida (10-7) vs. Kentucky
  4. Arkansas (10-7) at Missouri
  5. Kentucky (10-7) at Florida
  6. Missouri (9-8) vs. Arkansas
  7. Miss State (9-8) at LSU
  8. Alabama (8-9) at Texas A&M
  9. Texas A&M (8-9) vs. Alabama
  10. South Carolina (7-10) at Auburn
  11. Georgia (7-10) at Tennessee
  12. LSU (7-10) vs. Miss State
  13. Vanderbilt (5-12) at Ole Miss
  14. Ole Miss (5-12) vs. Vanderbilt

Arkansas has three possibilities for the SEC Tournament, they can finish anywhere between 4th and 7th. This is what has to happen for each.

4th Place: Win.

This one is easy, Arkansas wins they get the 4th seed. That’s important because it gets you a double bye straight to the quarterfinals. The Hogs are benefitted by Kentucky and Florida playing each other. One is guaranteed to lose, which means if the Hogs win they’ll be in a tie with an 11-7 record. They would lose to head to head tiebreaker against either team.

5th Place: Loss + Miss State Loss + Kentucky Win

Losing to Mizzou means at least three teams are finishing 10-8. (Arkansas, Mizzou, and the UK/UF loser) The tie breaker is combined win loss record between the teams, Arkansas is 1-2 against the Tigers and Kentucky. Mizzou would be 1-2, and Florida 2-0.

That puts the Gators in 4th and Arkansas and Missouri go to the next tie breaker which is the record against the top teams in the conference. If it’s Auburn, the Hogs’ 1-1 record tops Mizzou’s 0-1. If it’s Tennessee, it’s still the Hogs because both teams were 1-0 against the Vols, it then goes to second place Auburn.

6th Place: Loss + Miss State Loss + Florida Win

Let’s swap Kentucky into the three way tie instead of Florida. Arkansas is still 1-2, Kentucky is 2-1, Mizzou is 2-2. Kentucky is 4th, Mizzou 5th, and the Hogs 6th.

7th Place: Loss + Miss State Win

Still with us? Okay cause we’re about to get into 4-way tie territory. If the Bulldogs and Mizzou win, that’s 4 teams at 10-8. Again we go to the combined win loss record. Here are the records

  • Arkansas (1-3 if either Florida or Kentucky)
  • Missouri (2-3 if Florida, 3-3 if Kentucky)
  • Miss State (2-2 if either Florida or Kentucky)
  • Florida (3-0)
  • Kentucky (3-1)

So no matter if Kentucky or Florida drops into the tie Arkansas drops to 7th. That game would only affect Missouri and Mississippi State’s seeding.

So that’s where the Hogs would land but who would they play?

  • 4th seed: Most likely the 5th seed which would be the loser of the UK/UF game. The 12 or 13 seed could pull the upset though. That could be any number of teams. Let’s assume its either Kentucky or Florida.
  • 5th seed: The winner of the 12/13 game. Which could be any of the bottom five teams in the conference at the moment.
  • 6th seed: The winner of the 11/14 game. That could be any of the bottom seven teams.
  • 7th seed: The 10 seed. Which could also be any of five different teams.

So to sum it all up, good luck figuring out who the Hogs are playing in St. Louis.