Arkansas vs Toledo: Advanced Stats Review

What a mess.  A lot of times coaches will tell their team to forget all about a game like Toledo and immediately move on to the next. Not a bad idea, some even ceremonially bury the game film afterward. But what's the fun in that? I charted this game and it was not any better than watching on Saturday, take a look.

SUCCESS RATE (WHAT'S THIS?)	ARKANSAS vs TOLEDO
All (close) Entire game was calculated	46.4%
Rushing (close)	41.9%
Passing (close)	49.1%
Standard Downs	48.2%
Passing Downs	43.3%

Obviously the rushing success rate was horrid. A huge part of that percentage was from the red zone and just makes it tough to win a game like that. The standard downs success rate was livable, but with many of the other stats in this game it came down to the fact Arkansas was unable to put points on the board and could not convert at the end.

Hogs in the Air:

Brandon Allen had a career day and with the incredible struggles in the running game was asked to throw 53 times. Really want to see Allen come through in one of those 4th quarter come back situations.

Losing Keon Hatcher for at least six weeks will force changes to Arkansas' passing game by finding other targets more regularly. Drew Morgan and Cody Hollister came through with some big plays last week and will need to step into Hatcher's role. The missing WRs Dominique Reed and JoJo Robinson both have big play potential and could ease the stress on the entire offense. Busting a deep ball or getting a key PI call early in the next few games would flip the opposing defense's game plan.

Positives: Hard to take any positives away from an upset loss like that in addition to losing 1/3 of your passing targets so far this season. Jared Cornelius, and again Hollister and Morgan had some moments and all are showing a solid 80%+ catch rate.

Hogs on the Ground:

Not much to say here other than it was a total team failure. Listening to Sam Pittman at the Tuesday presser, it is clear that he will have his group motivated to redeem themselves. For the running game to work the backs need to be more north/south as well.

Garbage time explanation: "Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter." from Football Outsiders.

The 29.4% Success rate rushing on first down is the most glaring. They just could not run on early downs, had some success on 2nd down running due to getting some yards throwing on 1st down but that is not a winning formula.

All of the success came running to the middle and the left side. This can be a combination of things with running pulling schemes with players that are struggling to identify gap shooting defenders. The penalties destroyed several drives and were a major factor in the running game struggles.

I look for more zone run schemes with double teams up front, and straight power to get outside on occasion.

Overall Offense:

The low hanging fruit to criticize is the lack of a physical run game. The same schemes worked last season with the same guys for the most part so it is hard to think they have lost that edge. Is a lot of it a change in mentality at Offensive Coordinator? I really don't think so. Did teams figure out some of the run blocking schemes: front side pin and pull, trap by backside guard on the wham? I think so and Toledo had the guys up front to execute.

Arkansas ran 15 plays inside the Toledo 20 yard line.

Hogs on DEFENSE

The biggest takeaway for me is how Toledo used their fast paced offense to negate the advantages that Arkansas had up front. They spread out, putting some inexperienced Arkansas linebackers and DBs in space and throwing quick over the middle worked at times for Toledo. Arkansas was not able to get to the QB much due to that quick game and teams will continue that strategy from Texas Tech, to A&M, Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss.

Neither Defense sent much pressure but the Arkansas D did get burnt a few time when the sent pressure. The 5.5 yards per att on downs when they did not blitz is a solid rate. They were also able to get an INT that was overturned. As a whole they were solid.

Arkansas Defense had 7 broken tackles vs Toledo.

Arkansas Defense had 5 Tackles for loss vs Toledo.

Toledo was 2/6 passing inside the 20 vs Arkansas.

No play of the game in this one, but the end of the game drive and interception in the endzone earlier were the biggest plays. Being able to come back from this loss and come out prepared for Texas Tech will be a big challenge. They have a lot of upperclass players who have been through adversity before and can get this team back on track.