Arkansas vs. Tennessee Stats Preview: Bombs Away

The Hogs are BAAAAAAAAACK! Well, not quite. The Razorbacks are ranked 19th in Monday's AP poll and last week won their first two SEC games as a ranked team since 1998. But now a pivotal road game looms. Tennessee plays in the cavernous Thompson-Boling Arena and has been very difficult to beat on its floor when they're good. This edition of the Tennessee Volunteers, however, are not all that good.

Tennessee's signature win is a 67-55 pasting of Butler at home. Other than that, Texas Southern (123rd) is the next best victory. Tennessee beat hapless Mississippi State 61-47 in their conference opener, and then lost 56-38 at home to Alabama on Saturday.

Tennessee lives and dies by its trio of Richardson, Punter, and Moore. Richardson especially has to hit shots for them to have a chance in games. Each of those three players has logged at least 33 minutes in every major game this season for the Vols, so expect the Hogs to focus on wearing them down, just like against Georgia.

The other two spots are up for grabs. Reese and Carmichael rotate at the 5, meaning that Tennessee won't play a guy taller than 6-foot-8. Baulkman is generally the other guard, but he rotates heavily with Mostella, Hubbs, and others.

The Vols have a lot of depth in terms of minutes played, but their production doesn't go very deep into the bench.

Arkansas on offense

Some significant advantages for the Hogs here. You will see in a second why there's such a big difference between Tennessee's defensive efficiency (points per possession) and defensive floor percentage (percentage of possessions in which points are scored).

There it is: three point shooting. Tennessee is a dismal 300th in the nation in three point defense. Inside the arc, Tennessee's shooting defense is fairly stout. But not only is that three point defense bad, notice the three point rate: 46.1 percent of field goal attempts against Tennessee are three pointers. Only one team in all of college basketball (East Tennessee State) gets bombed on more than Tennessee.

Why is Tennessee's three point defense so bad? As we'll see in a second, first-year coach Donnie Tyndall wants an aggressive defense that forces turnovers. He's got that, but the Vols' half-court traps cause them to overpursue the ball. They've been victimized by simple ball screens and often fail to switch when an opponent breaks a trap. If Arkansas takes care of the basketball, the Hogs should see plenty of wide open threes.

There you see where Tennessee's defense gets the payoff: turnover percentage. The bad news for the Vols is that Arkansas' ballhandling has been excellent. Can it be excellent in a tough road environment? That's a key question. Tennessee's propensity to give up wide open threes is why they are 336th in assist percentage defense: 64 percent of opponent made field goals are assisted.

Tennessee on offense

With Richardson, the Vols can put up points at a decent rate. They play at the signature slow, grinding, clock-killing, fun-killing, soul-killing pace that has been the primary factor in the slow, agonizing death of SEC basketball over the last decade. Of course, the strategy occasionally works if it serves to take a team like Arkansas out of its comfort zone. It also causes their points scored per game (276th nationally) to make their offense appear worse than it already is.

Pushes across the board here. Tennessee is capable of getting hot from beyond the arc, which is probably their best chance to win. Georgia hit a season-high nine three pointers against the Hogs and lost anyway, but Tennessee may be capable of even more damage.

Tennessee doesn't assist on very many baskets and is average at turning it over. This is looking like one of those games that Arkansas can only force 10 or 12 turnovers and still win, though. Unlike Vanderbilt, whose young guards were overwhelmed in Fayetteville, Tennessee has mostly veterans handling the ball, so they are unlikely to just hand the ball to the Hogs too often.

There may be a lot of offensive boards. Both teams are excellent at tracking down their own misses, but Arkansas is significantly better at defensive rebounding, giving the Hogs an overall rebounding advantage against Tennessee's much smaller lineup.

Officiating always favors the home team (yes, Vanderbilt had some legitimate gripes about Saturday's reffing, but that's life on the road), but Tennessee commits a fairly astounding number of fouls. Arkansas usually doesn't commit very many, which should keep Tennessee from being able to win the game at the free throw line.

Three keys to victory

1. Get the inside-outside game going. Tennessee doesn't have a guy taller than 6-foot-8 and commits a ton of fouls, so the Hogs should have some success going inside. On the flip side, Tennessee's three point defense is about as bad as it gets in college basketball, so the Hogs should be able to get plenty of open looks for Michael Qualls, Anthlon Bell, Rashad Madden, Anton Beard, and Jabril Durham with patience. Looking at box scores of past Vol games, forwards don't tend to score many points against them, although much of that has to do with teams getting so many open three pointers. Still, I'm curious to see how Bobby Portis does against them. If he gets going, and the rest of the team isn't stone cold from the floor, the Hogs should win this one.
2. Take care of the basketball. Tennessee's defense depends on forcing turnovers. On the road, the quickest way to give the home team momentum is to turn the basketball over. If Arkansas can avoid Tennessee's traps, then open shots await.
3. Win the rebounding battle. A lineup without a guy taller than 6-8 should not outrebound the Hogs. Tennessee's offense is very dependent on tracking down missed shots, so a key to stopping them is to only give them one opportunity each possession.