Arkansas vs. Iowa State Preview: On the Road Again

When the basketball schedule came out, the three road games (SMU, Iowa State, and Clemson) were circled, and most noted that Arkansas probably needed to go 2-1 to make a statement. The Razorbacks made it easy on themselves by starting 1-0, winning in the ever-difficult Moody Coliseum. With Clemson in freefall (losses to Winthrop, Gardner-Webb, and Rutgers, all at home), the Hogs may be going for 3-0 against 20th-ranked Iowa State.

The Cyclones are 4-1, with wins over Oakland, Georgia State, and Alabama, and a rough loss to Maryland on a neutral floor. They followed that up with a 96-59 win over Lamar. They were clearly prepping for the Hogs: four of their five starters played season-lows in minutes, so they should be fairly rested heading into Thursday.

For basketball previews, I'll use a particular set of statistics. Let's look at them now:

• Effective Field Goal %: EFG% values a made three-pointer as 50 percent more, since that's how much more it's worth. For example, if Anthlon Bell goes 4 of 10 for 12 points - all three pointers - his FG% is 40 percent. But if Bobby Portis also goes 4 of 10 for 8 points - all two pointers - he is likewise at 40 percent, yet Bell contributed four more points. EFG% sets the value of a made basket at 2 for all shots, so Bell was effectively 6 of 10 to get his 12 points, or 60 percent EFG%. Basically, all made three-pointers count as 1.5 made field goals.
• Floor %: The percentage of possessions which result in a made basket or free throw attempts.
• Steal %: The percentage of opposing possessions that result in a steal; "Opponent Steal %" are the percentage of a particular team's possessions that result in an opponent stealing the ball.
• Three Point Rate: The percentage of a team's total field goal attempts that are three-pointers.
• Offensive Efficiency: The number of points divided by the number of possessions.
• Defensive Efficiency: The number of opponents' points divided by the number of opponents' possessions.

Got it? Let's roll:

Basketball is very different than football, when looking at stats. In football, every position is highly specialized: the quarterback throws the ball, the receivers catch it, the line blocks, etc. There are simple stats that cut right to heart of what you're looking for.

In basketball, it's a little different. Every player plays multiple roles. When looking at stats for clues as to how games will go, you have to find matchups. I like to watch a little film on teams to see if the eye test matches the stat test. In this case, we have some interesting stats. One key is that Iowa State is 244th in the nation in "opponent three point rate," meaning that opponents don't try many threes against them. There are two possible reasons for that: either their three-point defense is really good or opponents are having success getting inside against them. The former can be thrown out, as we see that ISU is only 214th in three-point defense. So opponents must be getting inside on them. Notice that the Hogs' three-point rate is only 289th, meaning that Arkansas loves to go inside. Other favorable matchups include Arkansas' three-point shooting (2nd) against ISU's three-point defense (214th). Arkansas' assist-to-turnover ratio (4th) shows that the Hogs get lots of assists and don't turn it over much while ISU's defense (323rd) show that the Cyclones give up lots of assists and don't force many turnovers.

Let's look at each team's roster and bring those stats into what Arkansas will likely have to do to attack ISU, and how the Hogs need to defense the Cyclones.

Arkansas' backcourt vs. Iowa State's backcourt

Arkansas

• Michael Qualls: 6-5, Jr., 15.3 points per game, 5.2 rebounds per game, 2.2 assists per game, 46.2 three-point FG%
• Anthlon Bell: 6-1, Jr., 13.2 points per game, 1.2 assists per game, 48.7 three-point FG%
• Rashad Madden: 6-5, Sr., 11.2 points per game, 6.0 assists per game, 46.7 three-point FG%
• Anton Beard: 6-0, Fr., 5.7 points per game, 46.2 three-point FG%
• Manuale Watkins: 6-3, Soph, 2.3 steals per game

Qualls will likely lead the team in minutes, as he can do everything: hit from outside, score inside, play good man defense, and rebound.

Iowa State

• Naz Long: 6-4, Jr., 12.8 points per game, 3.5 rebounds per game, 44.7 FG%
• Bryce Dejean-Jones: 6-6, Sr., 14.8 points per game, 7.3 rebounds per game
• Monte Morris: 6-1, Soph., 10.0 points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game, 6.5 assists per game, 41.7 three-point FG%
• Matt Thomas (2 games): 6-4, Soph., 9.5 points per game, 6.0 rebounds per game

Niang is one of the better frontcourt players in the country. This will be a huge test for Portis down low. The winner of that battle may win the game, although Arkansas might be able to offset Niang's production from beyond the arc a little bit.

Hog strategy

You may have noticed that all five starters average in double figures. Iowa State only gets about 15 points per game off the bench, and all five starters average more minutes per game than Michael Qualls (28.3), who leads Arkansas. The Razorbacks will want to keep the tempo fast to wear the Cyclones out, and keep rotating. Nick Babb, Durham, Watkins, Keaton Miles, and Kingsley will all need some early minutes before the stretch run begins. If Arkansas leads at the under-8 timeout of the second half, that will be a good sign.

Dejean-Jones and Niang are both subject to foul trouble. Attacking them to get to the line and get them to the bench could be huge. However, it's a road game, and the current state of college basketball is pretty obvious: officiating blatantly favors the home team most of the time. Don't worry, Arkansas gets it at Bud Walton Arena, but the strategy of trying to draw fouls is very hard to execute for a road team. Because of this, Arkansas is going to have to get some three-pointers to quiet the crowd a little bit.

The high possessions per game tells us what we already knew: this will be a fast-paced, up and down game. The Hogs can't get sloppy on the road, and need to stay fresh for the stretch run.

Keys to the game

1. Hit at least 7 three's and at least 38 percent from three. The Hogs need volume and quality here. The Hogs were 6 of 15 (40 percent) against SMU, so this isn't that hard of a task.

2. Finish layups and shots around the rim. Both Portis and Kingsley, along with some others, have gone through stretches of struggling to finish around the rim. Missing layups has been an issue in road games over the last couple of years. Against a defender like Niang, one chance may be all you get. The Hogs need to take advantage.

3. Portis needs at least 16 points and no foul-out. He had a season-high 22 against SMU, and he'll be needed again on the road. Drawing fouls is a great way to accumulate points, and his scoring means the Hogs don't have to launch three-pointers.

4. Go at least +8 in extra possessions. Arkansas needs to create extra possessions. That +8 can be combination of turnover margin and offensive rebounding. On the flip side, it also means not turning it over and not giving up offensive boards. Iowa State doesn't force too many turnovers (although they forced 27 against Lamar, one of the country's worst teams).

The key to this one will be how well Arkansas attacks. Iowa State isn't an overly physical team, so Bobby Portis and Alandise Harris/Jacorey Williams should be able to make headway in the low post and stay out of foul trouble. If that happens, the Hogs have a very good chance to pull this one out.